Europe Forecasts When Refugees Will Start Returning to Ukraine.

The European Union Predicts the Gradual Return of Ukrainians to Their Homeland

The European Commission has forecasted the beginning of a gradual return of Ukrainian refugees to their homeland as early as 2025, despite the lack of clear signals about a swift end to the Russo-Ukrainian war.

According to the new forecast from the European Commission, as of January of this year, around 4.3 million people held temporary protection status in the European Union. This number is expected to decline to 4.1 million by the end of 2025 and to 3.8 million by the end of 2026.

Labor Resources in the EU Are Increasing Due to the Arrival of Refugees from Ukraine

The document emphasizes that the significant increase in labor resources in EU countries observed during 2022-2024 is mainly linked to the mass arrival of refugees from Ukraine. The European Commission notes an extraordinary uncertainty regarding the economic consequences of Russia's armed aggression.

'The war in Ukraine continues with no signs of resolution. Despite the efforts being made by the USA, the EU, or individual member states, a solid peace agreement that offers adequate guarantees to Ukraine and the EU remains unattainable,' the forecast states.

According to the Economic Strategy Center's data published at the end of winter, as of late November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees were outside Ukraine. Analysts predict that after the war ends, between 1.2 to 2.2 million people may return home.

Studies show a decline in the willingness to return among refugees: currently, only 43% of respondents express certainty or inclination to return home.

There is also particular concern regarding the fact that the number of children and middle-aged women in Ukraine has decreased the most due to the departure of refugees. Experts warn that the non-return of these demographic groups could lead to a significant decrease in the country's population and exacerbate the trend of an aging nation.

Let's also remember how Ukrainians abroad can maintain their pensions and work experience.