The demographer predicted how many Ukrainians will remain after the end of the war.

Population forecast in Ukraine until 2040

According to Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, if the war in Ukraine ends in 2027, the number of Ukrainians in 2040 will reach 23.7 million. If the conflict lasts until 2030, the population will decrease to about 22 million.

If the war ends in 2027, the population in Ukraine will be 23.7 million in 2040, and if the war ends in 2030, there will be 22 million by 2040. However, it should be remembered that this is only for the controlled territory.

Gladun explained that the duration of the war affects the population through demographic processes. It is predicted that during the conflict, the birth rate will remain stable, but mortality will increase, and the number of people returning from abroad after 2030 will decrease.

Yes, since the war will end three years later. During this Time, the birth rate will not increase, mortality will be higher, and the number returning from abroad after 2030 will be lower.

Population estimate in the controlled territory

The demographer's forecast concerns only the territory controlled by Ukrainian authorities. Considering the complicated situation in the uncontrolled territory, it is difficult to estimate the population. Gladun explained that in case of regaining control over the entire territory of the country, the forecasts will need to be adjusted.

In preparing the forecast, we used current maps, studied the situation along the contact line as of January 1, 2025. Taking into account this data, we made our estimates regarding the population of Ukraine in the controlled territory.

It is predicted that the duration of the war affects demographic processes in Ukraine, changing birth and death rates. It is hard to estimate the population in uncontrolled territories, so demographic forecasts may require adjustments in the future.